A two-part article looks at the vulnerability of a mediation given the consequences of a comprise, and the need for Pakistan to realign if it is to become a real force to contend with.
The first round of talks in Pakistan between Iran and the US unsurprisingly failed over the weekend. Negotiations will to an extent continue but how fragile is mediation given President Trump’s malfunctioning state of mind which is in the territory of the 25th amendment of the US constitution; the Greater Israel plan; the West’s rush to maintain control over oil and gas reserves; the long standing plot to dismantle Muslim cohesion; and China’s and Russia’s leverage and experience together with their chance to change the world order through Iran while all of their interests coincide.
Israel in now militarily vulnerable while President Trump has unmasked his desperation and is tittering on the brink of madness as evidenced by his recent Truth Social message posted on Sunday, 5 April:
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****** Strait, you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,”
This is a direct insult hurled at all two billion Muslims. We have entered an era when Muslim leaders and generals need to determine whether indeed there is no praise greater than that due to Allah. Dignity, honour, and success only lie with Him.
Messages, statements, missions, and troop movements announced by the Trump Administration boosted by Israel’s own unrelenting killing spree in parallel to the mediation process demonstrate a lack of good faith.
What forms important background to any negotiations is US’s track record. In the past whilst Trump has mimicked engagement with Iran the US and Israel have gone on to launch strikes.
These acts of deception do not bode well for an honest commitment to secure peace. The US and Israel resiled from provisional terms by excluding the invasion, and commission of war crimes in Lebanon from any deal. Inviting Pakistan to step up as a mediator is likely to be a ruse: either unrealistic demands are accepted by Iran which would mean it has to relinquish its leverage, or time will be gained to prepare and launch further attacks against Iran, Lebanon, and elsewhere. This is Iran’s chance to break free from the shackles of sanctions, unfreeze assets, generate vast income from the operation of the Strait of Hormuz while emerging as a greater power aligned with China and Russia. But all of that is against the interests of Israel and the West because by allowing Iran to achieve such goals Gulf states will have to pivot away from the US and the petrodollar economy giving way to China and the Global South.
The scope of any deal has far reaching consequences for the world. Just as Iran has a chance to change its fate so does the Muslim world. Either Muslim states remain beholden to the West or now seek emancipation.
The US delegation which attended Islamabad included Steve Witkoff, United States Special Envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, a suspected Israeli asset, and Trump advisor. Based on their performance so far, this was the equivalent of sending serial arsonists to guard a petrol station. Notably, Israel has lurked in the shadows throughout as a force for sabotage.
Complicating the dynamics was a revelation suggesting that Washington was helping out with the text of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Tweet before publication announcing a two-week extension for dialogue.
Israel and the wider Zionist movement recognise this is probably the last chance saloon for their delusional regional dreams. They will therefore play Trump at any cost including scuppering mediation or designing a way to breach terms and return to conflicts. Netanyahu has promised Trump huge rewards from some compliant Middle Eastern players if he follows through with the Zionist plan to ‘destroy’ Iran. If Trump waivers, then there are the Epstein files to coax him back on track. But Trump will also want to win elections and preserve his voting base as without them he becomes dispensable, and he loses the ability to build upon his power and wealth.
China and Russia support Iran both openly and discreetly with military equipment and intelligence. Pakistan may have a hand in this too by providing land routes for transporting military equipment, and intelligence in relation to widespread imbedded Mossad operatives in Iran used to mobilise uprisings, target individuals, and sites as well as stores of arms and drones.
Ultimately, if mediation fails then there is a real risk Israel, or the US will resort to tactical nuclear weapons as the pain of their losses increases especially if the number of ground troops returned in body bags steadily increases. Trump is unable to bear severe humiliation. Netanyahu gave him bum assurances about the ease of a victory over Iran resulting in the quagmire the US is now stuck in. In an act of desperate self-preservation it is not inconceivable Trump could cut Israel loose to control domestic pressure and keep Gulf states and the flow of funds onside. If Israel finds itself isolated with an army which IDF Chief Zamir admits will “collapse in on itself” then its predisposition for unrestrained and ruthless violence may lead it to the use of nuclear weapons.
Margaret Thatcher mulled using such weapons against Iraqi forces were they to cross into Saudi Arabia following the start of the 1990 Gulf war. Sadam Hussain received the green light to invade Kuwait from April Glaspie, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq in July 1990. I acted in a series of BA149 cases – the ill-fated commercial British Airways flight carrying 385 passengers in August 1990 which was used as cover for a deniable top secret military mission to put operatives on the ground in Kuwait to call in air strikes. So there is nothing new about nuclear weapons being on the cards.
Here is an assessment, as edgy as it sounds, which will ultimately take shape if mediation fails to produce a lasting deal which binds Israel, and specifically, Trump: Tactical nuclear weapons will become an option for the US and Israel. Both the US (unless Trump expires or is removed from office sooner) and Iran will ultimately break up for different reasons. Iran will split along ethnic lines, and US states will seek independence. The US cannot bear the cumulative weight produced by; the effects of racism, poverty, widespread ownership of guns, drug abuse, further exposure of the Epstein evidence and similar horrors, an insufficient manufacturing base, escalating national debt, weakening of the petrodollar, defeat in additional costly successive wars, deterioration in international relations and above all its deeply unjust character. Israel will be left in the same position as Iran was before the ceasefire – fighting for its survival. In the final analysis a nation of around seven million cannot overcome half a billion in the MENA neighbourhood. Israel will suffer irreparably in the end.
Pakistan could offer deterrence. It is noteworthy that North Korea, an ally of China, is also keen to earn its medals as a nuclear power.
Pakistan may become an instrumental geopolitical force not only for itself but also other Muslim states in due course after further far-reaching conflicts and a great deal of individual and collective introspection across the Muslim world.
